Prediction Centric Warfare
Article
Published 10th September, 2025
by Dr Keith Dear
Prediction Centric Warfare
Dr Keith Dear
Abstract
This article advances the concept of prediction-centric warfare: the claim that victory in modern conflict depends fundamentally on the ability to predict, influence, and out-compete adversaries’ decision-making. Since decisions are conditional forecasts—judgements about expected outcomes under uncertainty—war is best understood as a contest over predictions rather than terrain or attrition alone.
Drawing on strategic theory, historical cases, cognitive science, and contemporary forecasting research, the article argues that tactics, operating concepts, and force design are themselves predictions about how future conflicts will unfold. In an era of accelerating technological change and profound uncertainty, success therefore requires making these forecasts explicit, probabilistic, and continuously testable. The paper situates the UK’s Digital Targeting Web as a nascent theory of victory and contends that it should be developed not merely as a digital integration effort, but as an engine for prediction-centric warfare—one that forecasts adversary behaviour and evaluates which combinations of actions will make the UK’s preferred outcomes the adversary’s least-bad options.