Everything is Prediction
Article
Published 2nd September, 2025
by Dr Keith Dear
Everything is Prediction
Dr Keith Dear
Abstract
This article argues that prediction is not an optional or specialised activity but an unavoidable feature of all reasoning, decision-making, and organisation. Every action embeds an implicit “if–then” claim about the future; the real choice is whether those claims remain tacit and unexamined or are made explicit, tested, and improved.
Against common assertions that historians, policymakers, or central bankers “do not predict,” the article shows that explanation, narrative, and scenario-building necessarily shift expectations about what comes next and therefore function as forecasts in disguise. Drawing on philosophy, economics, cognitive science, and evolutionary theory, it develops a discipline of responsible prediction: grounding beliefs in base rates, pairing scenarios with probabilistic forecasts, pre-committing to action thresholds, and updating transparently as evidence accumulates. Markets, prediction tournaments, and feedback-rich institutions are presented as social technologies for aggregating dispersed knowledge and improving calibration, in contrast to narrative-driven or opaque decision processes.
The article further links prediction to agency, from simple organisms to human organisations, arguing that perception, action, strategy, and governance are all structured by forecasts corrected through surprise. The conclusion is normative as well as analytical: institutions that deny prediction do not escape it; they merely hide their bets. Making forecasts legible and accountable is therefore essential to better decisions, trust, and learning under uncertainty.