SUPERSTRATEGY – probabilistically optimised, frontier-forecasted decisions.

Question: Will at least 80% of UK businesses report using AI as of Q4 2030, with at least half of adopters delegating multi-step work without case-by-case approval?

Resolves: Will resolve as true if, by 01 Jul 31, official UK business data covering Q4 2030 show that at least 80% of businesses use AI, and an official or robust representative survey shows that at least half of adopters delegate multi-step work without case-by-case human approval. It will otherwise resolve as false.

Question: Will lack of high-quality domain-specific data be identified as a binding constraint on AI progress in at least one major sector before 1 Jan 31?

Resolves: Will resolve as true if, by 01 Jan 31, a relevant UK or international authority, or at least two independent sector analyses, concludes that inadequate high-quality domain data is materially constraining AI progress in at least one major sector. It will otherwise resolve as false.

Why it resolved: The World Bank, a relevant international authority, launched World Development Report 2026 on 2026-08-04. Its publication page says AI adaptation across “education, health, and the legal system” requires local contexts and “making public administrative data AI-ready” (https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2026). A WDR chapter reports that “data quality and availability” are the most common barriers that “prevent or limit” government AI use and that AI potential is conditional on data, while another chapter discusses sector-specific challenges and underinvestment in “high-quality, localized training data” (https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/0458e40e-fec1-44c4-a982-82835bdc34a2/download; https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/6bf9eeb7-3548-4fa5-b2f3-22d9ea3c3cd5/download). This satisfies the authority route.

Question: Will the share of AI usage classified as 'automation' exceed the share classified as 'augmentation' in Anthropic's Economic Index before 1 Jan 28?

Resolves: TRUE if a released Anthropic Economic Index shows aggregate automation share exceeding augmentation share before the date; otherwise FALSE.

Question: Will a majority of the UK public support stronger AI regulation in the latest available survey before 1 Jan 28?

Resolves: TRUE if the most recent such survey before the date shows majority support for stronger AI regulation; otherwise FALSE.