SUPERSTRATEGY – probabilistically optimised, frontier-forecasted decisions.

Question: Will UK official bodies recognise robust evidence of net AI-caused job displacement before 1 Jan 31?

Resolves: TRUE if such an official analysis attributing net displacement to AI is published before the date; otherwise FALSE.

Question: Will a frontier AI lab publicly claim to have deployed a substantially autonomous 'AI researcher' conducting AI R&D before 1 Jan 29?

Resolves: TRUE if, before 1 Jan 2029, a frontier AI lab states in its own published material that it is using an AI system as a substantially autonomous researcher in its AI research and development — meaning the lab characterises the system as selecting its own approaches, designing and running its own experiments, and iterating on results without per-step human direction — and describes this as ongoing use within its research process rather than a bounded experiment. Does not count: capability details appearing incidentally in material whose subject is something else, such as a safety incident, an evaluation result, or a benchmark record; long-running autonomous execution of a human-specified task against a pre-set metric; one-off experiments, demonstrations, or evaluation runs; systems the lab describes as assisting, accelerating, or augmenting its researchers; media characterisations not matched by a statement from the lab. Otherwise FALSE.

Question: Will semiconductor export controls or supply-chain disruption be credibly reported to have materially constrained global AI compute supply before 1 Jan 30?

Resolves: TRUE if credible reporting documents such a material constraint before the date; otherwise FALSE.

Why it resolved: Reuters reported on 2026-07-10 that SK Hynix, a pivotal AI supply-chain firm because its HBM is used in Nvidia chipsets, said customer demand keeps rising while capacity is limited and that demand would exceed supply capacity beyond 2030. Reuters also reported Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s statement that AI memory shortages would continue for several years. This documents an actual capacity shortage in a critical semiconductor input to AI compute, not just trade redirection. Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sk-hynix-ceo-sees-worst-ever-memory-supply-shortage-2027-says-demand-outstrip-2026-07-10/

Question: Will an official UK assessment conclude that AI-enabled healthcare increased healthy life expectancy at birth by at least three months by the end of 2030?

Resolves: Will resolve as true if, by 01 Jan 33, ONS, DHSC, OHID, NHS England or a comparably authoritative evaluation estimates that AI-enabled healthcare increased UK healthy life expectancy at birth by at least three months by end-2030 relative to a stated counterfactual. It will otherwise resolve as false.